There is something for everyone to like in the AJC Georgia poll — except Stacey Abrams

President Donald Trump and Republican Senatorial candidates remain slight favorites in Georgia

The University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs released its 2020 General Election Survey on Tuesday that found President Donald Trump with a narrow lead over former Vice President Joe Biden in Georgia, a state where absentee voting by mail has already begun.

So, what does all of this mean?

First off, the UGA/AJC poll is only one poll. It’s never smart to look at just one poll to get an accurate reading of a population. So, let’s turn to the Real Clear Politics average of polls which has President Trump up 1 point over former Vice President Biden. That number is an average of recent polls that have both Trump and Biden up in the state. Additionally, the RCP average was pretty close in Georgia during the 2016 election. On election day, the average was Trump +4.8% and Trump ended up winning +5.1%. So since the AJC poll is pretty close to the average, it can be used to identify trends among demographic groups.

Where do these races stand?

The race for President in the state of Georgia is close, no doubt about it. But, President Trump still holds an advantage over Vice President Biden in the state. Not only did President Trump lead in this poll, but also in the WSB/Landmark Poll done at the end of August (48–41%). In all reality, Biden’s numbers were never below 45(ish)% in the state; that’s why polls have margins of error. However, the margin of error in that poll did not make the frontrunner contested.

Trump v. Biden On the Issues

Voting in the State of Georgia

Georgia is a unique state to vote in. Voters have the option of voting in-person on election day, voting in-person early (as soon as 3 weeks before election day), and voting absentee by mail. According to the UGA/AJC poll, only one-third of Georgians plan to vote on election day. 36.8% of Georgians plan to vote early in-person and 26.7% of likely voters plan to vote by mail.

An Election Night Warning

On election night, it is going to appear President Trump and Senator Perdue have won the state of Georgia by a significant margin. That is not going to be the case. Since ballots cannot be opened until election day, all mail-in votes are going to be delayed in reporting by several days, perhaps even weeks. In the summer, more than a million Georgians requested absentee ballots and it was almost a full week before we knew the results of several primary races. Turnout is typically much higher in general elections so that number could be even higher.

Sorry Stacey

Since Stacey Abrams was defeated by Governor Brian Kemp in 2018, she has been running a group called Fair Fight Action. The group claims systematic voter suppression is prevalent in the United States and has been using the 2020 primaries in Georgia as an example. However, a majority of Georgians and a majority of Democrats are not buying it.

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